Economic growth across Africa is projected to accelerate to 4.0 percent in 2026 and 4.1 percent in 2027, up from 3.9 percent in 2025 and 3.5 percent in 2024, according to the United Nations Office of the Special Adviser on Africa and the UN Economic Commission for Africa.
The acceleration reflects stronger macroeconomic stability in several of the continent’s major economies, supported by 2025’s expansion in trade, driven by strong exports of precious metals and agricultural commodities alongside rising imports of transport equipment. The World Bank’s most recent regional outlook similarly noted that Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth is holding, even as downside risks mount.
The improved growth outlook is not without strain. Median inflation across the continent, having fallen from 4.4 percent in 2024 to 3.7 percent in 2025, is projected to rise again to 4.8 percent in 2026, driven largely by spillovers from conflict in the Middle East and its effect on energy and food prices. High debt-servicing costs and limited fiscal space continue to weigh on prospects for inclusive, sustainable development in many economies, even as headline growth improves.
Trade policy adds a further layer of uncertainty. The expiration of the African Growth and Opportunity Act and the introduction of new tariff measures present particular challenges for exporters in sectors such as apparel, even as the African Continental Free Trade Area continues its gradual implementation. For the Zambezi Institute, the message from this year’s growth data is one of cautious optimism: the continent’s aggregate numbers are improving, but the gains remain unevenly distributed and vulnerable to external shocks that African policymakers have limited power to control.
